低温雨雪过程的粒子群-神经网络预报模型   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

陆虹  翟盘茂  覃卫坚  金龙  谢敏  钱晰  赵华生 《应用气象学报》2015,26(5):513-524

利用逐日气温和降水量数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及预报场资料,通过分析提取我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程及其预报因子,使用粒子群-神经网络方法建立非线性的统计集合预报模型 (PSONN-EPM),对我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程进行预报试验。结果表明:以过程的冷湿程度及影响范围为标准,将低温雨雪过程分为一般过程和严重过程,并建立不同的预报模型效果较好。通过10 d独立样本预报试验看,基于粒子群-神经网络方法建立的集合预报模型比基于逐步回归方法建立的预报模型的预报平均相对误差小,对严重过程预报能力高于对一般过程预报,且这种非线性统计集合建模方法在建模过程中不需要调整神经网络参数,在实际预报业务中值得尝试。  相似文献   

利用MODIS卫星产品分析西南地区云水特征     

林丹 《气象科技》2015,43(1):138-144

采用NASA Goddard Earth Science DAAC发布的2001—2010年MODIS水云云水含量和水云粒子有效半径资料, 选取西南地区（四川、重庆、云南、贵州）,分析了水云云水含量和水云粒子有效半径的多年平均空间分布特征,对年和季节平均水云云水含量和粒子有效半径进行了线性趋势分析,并进行了显著性检验。结果表明：西南地区年和季节多年平均云水含量在海拔高的地方偏少,在海拔低的地方偏多;年和季节多年平均粒子有效半径的空间分布特征与云水含量相反。云水含量具有季节差异性,秋季和夏季是云水含量最丰富的季节,春季和冬季较少;粒子有效半径的季节差异较小。10年中云水含量呈减少趋势,春季和冬季云水含量减少趋势明显;而粒子有效半径无显著变化趋势。  相似文献   

惠民凹陷大芦家地区馆陶组三段沉积微相类型及空间展布     

国景星  郭卫萍  刘斌楠  曹铮 《地球科学与环境学报》2015,(1)

针对惠民凹陷大芦家地区各断块地层单元划分不一致,沉积相认识存在分歧等问题,依据旋回级次、旋回性质等,将馆陶组三段划分出2个四级旋回、4个五级旋回、16个六级旋回;并以岩芯及室内分析资料、测井资料等为主要依据,综合分析岩石类型、粒度及结构特征、垂向粒序变化、层理构造类型及自然电位曲线形态等。结果表明:惠民凹陷大芦家地区馆陶组三段主要发育冲积扇及辫状河;冲积扇主要发育辫流砂岛、辫流沟道、辫流带、漫流席状砂、远端砂丘等微相;辫状河主要发育心滩,辫状河道充填,天然堤、漫滩和道间洼地沉积,泛滥平原沉积,废弃河道等微相;2个四级旋回的沉积相类型及空间展布特征相似;第Ⅰ五级旋回在研究区中偏西部属冲积扇沉积,主要发育辫流砂岛、辫流沟道、辫流带微相,在东部属扇前平原沉积;第Ⅱ五级旋回早期以辫状河沉积为主,河道规模较大,仅在第Ⅱ1六级旋回的东北部位见冲积扇的辫流砂岛及辫流沟道微相;第Ⅱ五级旋回中期属辫状河沉积,河道规模减小,2个河道群自NW向SE方向流动;第Ⅱ五级旋回晚期河道规模更小,逐渐向曲流河沉积过渡。  相似文献   

2009-2013年普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量的年际变化及其与全球气候事件的关系     

扈传昱  韩正兵  孙维萍  陈际雨 《海洋与湖沼》2015,46(2):285-294

利用中国南极科学考察期间获得的颗粒物样品,对南大洋普里兹湾海域水体中生物硅的含量分布及年际变化情况进行了分析。研究结果显示:在2013年夏季普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量在0.38—8.62μmol/dm3之间变化,平均为1.55±1.86μmol/dm3。生物硅在67°S以南湾内区域表层水体中的含量明显高于67°S以北的湾外区域,最大值出现在普里兹湾陆架区,生物因子是表层水体生物硅含量分布的主控因子。根据不同年份即25、26、27、28、29次南极科学考察期间获取的数据研究显示,普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量存在明显的年际差异。历史数据分析结果表明,气候事件对普里兹湾海冰变化有明显的影响,因而对相应年份该海域浮游植物数量和种群结构也会产生一定的影响,从而导致表层水体中生物硅含量的年际差异。  相似文献   

Numerical predictions of water–air wave slam using incompressible–compressible smoothed particle hydrodynamics     

《Applied Ocean Research》2015

The high-speed impact between a body and water is an important practical problem, whether due to wave impact on a structural deck or wall, or due to a moving body such as a ship or aircraft hitting water. The very high pressures exerted are difficult to predict and the role of air may be significant. In this paper, numerical simulations are undertaken to investigate the impact of a rigid horizontal plate onto a wave crest and, in the limit, onto a flat water surface. A two-phase incompressible–compressible smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method for water and air, respectively, is applied where the water phase imposes kinematics on the air phase at the air–water interface and the air phase imposes pressures on the water at the interface. Results are compared with experimental measurements undertaken using a drop rig positioned over a wave flume so that a horizontal plate impacts the water surface in free flight. Numerical predictions of impact pressure are quite accurate; air is shown to have a significant cushioning effect for impact on to flat water and this reduces for waves as the ratio of wave height to wavelength increases.  相似文献   

Hydrogeochemical models locating sulfate-methane transition zone in marine sediments overlying black shales: A new tool to locate biogenic methane?     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2015

Precise hydrogeochemical modeling of early diagenesis is a key in the reconstruction of sedimentary basin models. This determines the mineralogical evolution of the sediment and consequently the porosity of the rock. During early diagenesis also part of the initial organic matter is converted into biogenic gas: CH₄ CO₂, and H₂S. These processes are part of complex reaction chains during sedimentation, and biogeochemical reactions leave different signals that can be observed today. In this work, we reproduce the early diagenetic processes as integrated signals over geological times in sediments of the Demerara Rise by applying chemical thermodynamics using the PHREEQC (version 2) computer code. The investigated sediments are characterized by the presence of black shales in 410–490 mbsf and by a diagenetic barite layer above in 300–350 mbsf at depth of sulfate-methane transition (SMT). We determine the parameters that influence the location of diagenetic barite peaks in sediments overlying black shales by means of a novel modeling approach. Crucial parameters are the amount of bacterial organic matter mineralization, sedimentation rates and bottom water sulfate concentrations. All parameters are intertwining and influence the sulfate-methane cycle. They affect the location of the SMT visualized by diagenetic barite peaks. However, our model approach opens a wide field in exploring early diagenetic reactions, processes and products (such as biogenic methane) over geological times mirrored by diagenetic minerals and pore water concentration profiles that can be detected in present-day sediments.  相似文献   

Evaluating conditions for transboundary Marine Spatial Planning: Challenges and opportunities on the island of Ireland     

《Marine Policy》2015

Transboundary cooperation is viewed as an essential element of Marine Spatial Planning (MSP). While much of the MSP literature focuses on the need for, and benefits of, transboundary MSP, this paper explores the political and institutional factors that may facilitate the effective transition to such an approach. Drawing on transboundary planning theory and practice, key contextual factors that are likely to expedite the transition to transboundary MSP are reviewed. These include: policy convergence in neighbouring jurisdictions; prior experience of transboundary planning; and good working relations amongst key actors. Based on this review, an assessment of the conditions for transboundary MSP in the adjoining waters of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is undertaken. A number of recommendations are then advanced for transboundary MSP on the island of Ireland, including, the need to address the role of formal transboundary institutions and the lack of an agreed legal maritime boundary. The paper concludes with some commentary on the political realities of implementing transboundary MSP.  相似文献   

History,effort distribution and landings in an artisanal bottom longline fishery: An empirical study from the North Atlantic Ocean     

《Marine Policy》2015

Commercial fishing data were used to reconstruct historical spatio-temporal patterns of fishing effort and landings in the bottom longline fishery of the Azores. Key events during an important 15-year period were charted, through fisher interviews together with GIS analysis. While effort distribution varied over time, the prevailing pattern was a shift in focus from eastern to western areas and from shelf/slope to offshore banks and seamounts in response to policy measures (e.g. banning bottom longline inside 3 NM, public aids for modernization of the fleet) and reduced fishing yields. Areas 12–50 NM from shore represented the most vital fishing grounds in terms of fishing effort and production. Declining landings of the major demersal species, in recent years, indicate that present catch levels are not sustainable and further measures need to be taken in order to sustain fisheries resources. Knowledge of fleet behavior and the distribution of fishing effort, particularly in patchy environments, provide valuable insights into the impacts of past management decisions and help predict the outcome of new policies both in this region and elsewhere.  相似文献   

Marine conservation challenges in an era of economic crisis and geopolitical instability: The case of the Mediterranean Sea     

《Marine Policy》2015

In the Mediterranean Sea, socio-economic drivers may accelerate the process of exclusive economic zone (EEZ) declarations. Despite the challenges, the EEZ declarations may provide important opportunities for leveraging change to national policy towards the development of large-scale conservation of marine ecosystems and biodiversity in this zone. Using the Mediterranean Sea as a case study, we aim to highlight a set of best practices that will maximize the potential for the development of large-scale marine conservation initiatives. These include a range of approaches, such as using surrogates to fill the many biodiversity data gaps in the region, further the development of consistent and open access databases, and the utilization of technological developments to improve monitoring, research and surveillance of less accessible and under-explored marine areas. The integration of Mediterranean-wide and local conservation efforts, the facilitation of transboundary collaboration, and the establishment of regional funds for conservation will further enhance opportunities for marine conservation in this region.  相似文献   

Lessons from stakeholder dialogues on marine aquaculture in offshore wind farms: Perceived potentials,constraints and research gaps     

《Marine Policy》2015

Drawing on a case study in Germany, this contribution explores the practical application of offshore aquaculture within offshore wind farms in view of the different stakeholders involved. Using a transdisciplinary research approach, an understanding of the rationalities and interests among the different involved stakeholder groups was explored. Offshore wind energy is high on the political agenda in Germany. The vast spatial requirements however inherit potential user conflicts with competing, and under current legislation excluded users such as fishermen. Solutions for combining sustainable uses of the same ocean space have thus seen increasing interest within the research community in Germany and in Europe over the past years. This paper was inspired by and presents the outcomes of a stakeholder analysis and in particular a stakeholder workshop. Central focus was placed on academics and private as well as public stakeholders engaged in current research efforts of combining offshore wind farms and aquaculture in the German North Sea. The paper identifies the overall acceptance of such a multi-use scenario in society, opportunities and constraints as perceived by the stakeholders, and key research gaps. The results confirm the assumption that there is a clear need, and also willingness on behalf of the policy makers and the research community, to find sustainable, resource- and space-efficient solutions for combined ocean use.  相似文献